Life Spans

If one dated the Great Depression from 1932 and the Current Crisis as defining itself in 2008 the life span of the American Economy was 76 years which corresponds nicely with the average life span of a healthy male.
The American Economy: Infantile and helpless in the thirties, tumultuous in the fourties, industrious in the fifties, mid-life crisis in the 60s, and then on through the 70s and 80s as baby boomers were raised to the dulcet sounds of Michael Jackson into the peaceful autumn of the 90s: with its relative peace and distracting, comical, sex scandals. This all brought us again to a new tumultuous decade with its own set of problems.
That supposed life span of 76 years means there is a transfer of assets and, more importantly, liabilities to a new generation. This generation now can accept the former's legacy or see fit to default on our parents monumental debts and begin anew.

Broken dreams

So Cowen and Lenihan have decided to recapitalize the Irish banks eh? I'm sorry it had to come to Argentinian style pension robbing. So it goes.
We know how this happened. We know how Ireland has fallen on these hard times. It all has to do with the break ups. And it's not just Ireland all These Sceptered Isles are hitting hard times. I put it to you that there was no recession when Bertie and Tony were united with Brian and Gordon. There were no pork crises.
Political love has been lost.
This video is for two true power couples to let them know that it's always better when we're together.

Are we human? Or are we Madoff?

50 billions dollars. 50 billion dollars. 50 billion dollars. 50 billion dollars.

Jambon Disturbance

So Deutsche Bank doesn't feel the need to call its Tier II valued bonds eh? Fine. Call them what though? What would they have called them if they did call them? This is worrying. All very worrying.

Are the Bankers Dancer?

One may well ask Mr. Flowers. Then again one must unask the question. Are the bankers dancer? Are we dancer? It is immaterial. There is too little time for these hypothetical questions.

I say there is little time left. The piper will be paid and all of Bernanke's shamanic healing can't staunch the flow of green money blood pouring out of the United states. The sort of poisonous blood which is highly acidic and corrodes the other countries of this planet.

The losses will mount and the only hot property will be stolen property, canned tomatoes, shotguns, locks, comforters, tea, a collection of vegetable and grain seed, and something else, something elusive.

How did Goldman the fortress of money get touched? The seething asian hordes have mounted the gates and are storming through the city.
Dark days ahead. Still, the torch must be carried forward.

Wolves Eat Dogs

We used to joke. We used to say where did all the money go? When we knew where the money was. The money was within. The money was tied up in complex credit derivatives and default swaps. It was gone but it was still out there you know what I mean? Sure, it was abstract but at least it was something.

Where has Bernard Madhoff's money gone?
This is no joke. He actually did lose this. He didn't lose it down the back of the couch, nor did he lose it like Uncle Henry to Potter, Bernard just straight up lost it, and the only stuff he didn't lose is what he never had.

The Credit Crunch is an illusion. There is no credit. There is no currency. There is only darkness with native tribes burning their torches and wolves eating dogs.

Investment Analysis

The US three month T-bill rate went negative today (it's her first time). If I wanted to, hypothetically, for arguments sake, say possibly, I could give the US government a thousand dolla-dolla bills today and they would guarantee to pay me back in three months time about 975 bucks...
Now what I want to know is what's going on here? Sure negative payouts don't sound that attractive but who's to say? These are confusing times. There is no right and wrong just the eternal money dance. The mystical money muzurka.

Self fulfilling prophesy.

Carphone warehouse you done a bad thing. You know what you did. And you know it was wrong! So WRONG!
Self fulfilling prophesy. This is the crux of problem. When you make an action and your fate is decided by the machinations of a million strangers. There is no prediction so you must look very much inside yourself for solid ground. Oh carphone warehouse.

Co-ordinated gridlock.

Canada is a big, beautiful country. If the lousy Yanks hadn't played the Uncle Sam Money Bags for Alaska it would be the biggest in the world led by Prime Minister Palin.

One of the great things about Canada is natural devolution. The notion that the actions of Inuits in Nunavut, Newfies in Labrador, and Tabernac Busch drinking Quebeckers are controlled by the wispings of Stephane Dion or Uncle Steve doesn't hold water. Despite a redistributive trudeaupian government Canada embodies real freedom a lot better then other countries who make excessive claims to it.

And now that the government is in total gridlock Canada might emerge from this global economic houdiniwatsa (this is a new term) better than any other country in the world.

Give me Leverage and I will move the world

It's all about money. Money is the way. Money is credit. Money is the Crisis. Money, American Money, has been almost totally devalued.

The notion that years of systemic banking failure, misguided allocation of capital, and general economic lunacy could have been reversed or avoided by co-ordinated (sloppy), measured (hastily) drafted legislation was and remains a ridiculous notion.

The consumption and spending patterns of a country of 250 million people cannot be predicted with anything resembling accuracy so discount stimulus packages. If you know that there is a storm brewing you batten down the hatches. So where is there a shred of sanity in committing half a country's GDP to 'saving' the banking system?

Does anybody else remember a few months ago when nearly every condescending media pundit was saying something like "70 billion dollars for AIG is piss in the ocean compared to the size of our GDP Har. Har. Har."

True, I guess, using some perverse kind of arithmetic, but the point is 70 billion here, 700 billion there, and pretty soon you are talking about 7.6 trillion dollars committed to moribund financial institutions...

Well money is a strange thing. You work for it, you inherit it, you find it buried on a carribean island, or you can print it. The problem with the last option is when you print lots and lots of pieces of green paper and trade them for big cars and flat tv screens the people you've traded with are going to cop on eventually.

This comes from somewhere else...

The bottom line, in Kohler’s view, is that analyst profit forecasts are “virtually useless”.

Fund managers have known this for a long time, which is why they do their own forecasts. Broker research is more read for ideas and insights, and for subtle hints about companies that are written in code. But pity the poor retail investor who doesn’t understand the code and simply believes the profit forecasts and recommendations.

Amazingly, he adds, Ferraro and Ross say they don’t expect things to improve. “Our expectation is that sector analysts’ forecasts will continue to not accurately reflect deteriorating operating conditions for many companies.”

They conclude by suggesting that clients stick with analysts that have “long track records”, rather than their “less seasoned counterparts”. They don’t, however, mention the big salaries that analysts get to produce decent research for their firms’ clients, when in fact they are just managing their reputation risk and currying favour with corporate management.

History

The old cliche. The only thing that man does not learn from history is that it repeats itself. So said somebody: Aldous Huxley or maybe it was Fats Waller or Fatty Arbuckle... That's not the point.
The point is I'm worried.

"Who among us has increased his life one minute by worrying?"
Well arguably alot of people. But that's not the point either.

I'm still worried.
I'm worried about Ben. I was mean to him. Ben's not just a massage therapist. He's got some message that he's trying to deliver.
He's no fool and I think he might even play for keeps. My concern is he doesn't realize he's wrapped up in history.

He's the unfortunate astronaut who approaches the event horizon of a black hole and the gravitational gradient becomes so steep that he is torn apart.

He has studied the depression! He knows the History but he doesn't know it will repeat itself. Regardless of quantitative easing. This is a financial earthquake. The only thing to be done is calmly wait for it to end and next time don't build your house on a fault line.

Gird Your Loins!

Too much on the plate right now. Far too much.

Firstly last's weeks stock market rally was a stunning testament to human stupidity, group think, near sighted profiteering, deception, and cowardice...

Now it's tuesday and how's this for a return to reality:
Citigroup fell 22%, Bank of America declined 21% and J.P. Morgan Chase slipped 18%.

I repeat my new mantra:
The Markets will continue to fluctuate. The Markets will continue to fluctuate. The Markets will continue to fluctuate. But it brings me no solace. I feel banished from the desert.

I need to heal. But how to heal? I don't care how much quantitative healing Ben Bernanke thinks he is capable of. Ben Bernanke is a massage therapist and when the economy needs quadruple bypass surgergy a back rub will not suffice.

Will Obama's production of the rivals be a success? Hillary as Mrs. Malaprop is a very dangerous choice in my opinion. I'm not convinced she has the comic range to pull it off.

And now for a musical interlude:
SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

Articles we are reading:
Goldman Faces Loss of $2 Billion for Quarter
Somali Pirates Run Wild
Mumbai Could be Anywhere
Hillary Clinton Appointed Secretary of State
Wall Mart Employee Trampled to Death in Shopping Frenzy